Fresh Bilge

Funny business in Minnesota is not funny at all. Democratic “activists” have perfected the tactic of placing ideologically-aligned Secretaries of State and manipulating the electoral process to tip subsequent close contests.

There are more rumbles from the gut of the EPA, which wants to tax cow farts, swine poop, and all other imaginary menaces to global climate.

On the global scale, sea ice has reached the greatest extent since 1979, two years after the Pacific Decadal Oscillation turned positive. Last year PDO went negative again. Any questions?

Vin Suprynovicz argues with a Luddite.

California wants to ban giant flat-screen “energy hog” TV’s. Maybe these “randoms’ aren’t so random after all.

I got a call from Doctor D’s office today. The blood cultures turned up nothing. The horrible bruise on my right arm served no good purpose. However my CBC disclosed some disquieting changes: hemoglobin had fallen to 8.8 and platelet count to 79k. The latter was quite a sharp drop — it had been 104k the previous week. Anemia is a well-known side-effect of many chemotherapies, and my platelet count was low before I started treatment.

Doctor D dispatched me to the lab at once for a new set of numbers prior to tomorrow’s scheduled treatment. I know the numbers will be worse. I made it to the beach today, but only barely, and I’m feeling very weak. My lung capacity somewhat impaired, but it is no less, so I expected bad blood numbers. Between the anemia and the fevers, I feel pretty certain treatment will be postponed at least a week.

In Belief or Unbelief? the dialogue between Umberto Eco and Cardinal Martini, the “unbeliever” is no Sam Harris. Not only is Eco as versed in the the Bible, the Church, its history and principal thinkers as the Cardinal is, but in the end the author and skeptic makes some remarkable concessions.

Try to think for a moment that there is no God, that man appeared on the earth through a clumsy accident, consigned to mortality, but also condemned to be aware of this, and that therefore he is the most imperfect among all animals. This man, to find the courage to face death, would out of necessity become a religious creature and aspire to construct narratives capable of providing an explanation and a model, an exemplary image. And of those he can dream up — some illuminating, some terrible, some pathetically self-consolatory — in the fullness of time, he has at a given moment the religious and moral and poetic strength to conceive the model of Christ, of universal love, of forgiveness of one’s enemies, of life offered in terrible sacrifice for the salvation of the other.

Then there is this paragraph, on the next and final page.

Even if Christ were only a character in a great story, the fact that this story could have been imagined and desired by featherless bipeds who only knew that they didn’t know, would be as miraculous (miraculously mysterious) as the fact that the son of a real God really incarnated. This natural and earthly mystery would never stop stirring and softening the hearts of nonbelievers.

Perhaps. I had come to view the story this way; however, my heart was not softened. That only happened when I asked the Lord for help, inwardly; received it, inexplicably, in a fashion I had never imagined; and later entered the Church in a different frame of mind. Then what had seemed a silly ritual revealed itself as the font beside which one could die of thirst, if one remained adamant, or from which one could drink, if one only conceded the possibility that the source might be real.

So I have confessed, performed penance, and taken communion in the Catholic Church during this Christmas season. I no longer care whether the great story is true in any literal sense. It is true in some other sense that transcends such categories. It is one path toward the Unknowable; but of all the paths mankind has sought, dreamed, or devised for this purpose, it is the most admirable, as Eco concedes in the first of the two paragraphs I have quoted.

A rare reader sent me a link to the pdf of a scientific paper published in 2003. It contains the results of an exhaustive survey in the north lobe of Yellowstone Lake — a survey that revealed extraordinarily complex terrain underwater — cratered, domed, faulted, terraced, scarred by landslide and layered with explosion debris. There were active hydrothermal areas, but domed and inactive areas were deemed more likely sites for future explosive activity. Some of the past explosions were bigger than I knew. Mary Bay and Elliot craters are the largest known hydrothermal explosion craters in the world. The former deposited breccia (debris) four kilometers inland, about 13,000 years ago. I cannot blockquote from the pdf, but you will find the relevant passage on page 16.

When YVO speaks of possible hydrothermal explosions, it refers to events that could dwarf an eruption of Old Faithful. Imagine a blast of water, steam, and rock several miles high, mini-tsunamis sweeping the lake, and rockfall showering adjacent shores. Maybe the webcam ought to be situated a bit uphill and west of the potential scene. What webcam? Well, I’m surely hoping YVO will install one in the area if the activity continues.

Writing for the New York Times, Michael Lewis and David Einhorn describe “the end of the financial world as we know it.” They follow up with some proposals for reform. I don’t agree with everything they say — the tone is almost Thirtyish in its anti-banker fervor — and they don’t breathe a word about the responsibility of individual politicians, who protected the industry from scrutiny while receiving campaign bribes. The names Chuck Schumer, Chris Dodd, and Barney Frank never appear. But the Lewis / Einhorn perspective is nevertheless worth study, if one wants to understand the course of probable reforms.

Here is some perspective on Yellowstone from a far more active volcanic zone: Kamchatka.

Explosive-effusive eruption of the volcano continues. Probably an ash explosive activity of the volcano will grow. The activity of the volcano is dangerous for international and low-flying aircraft.

Seismic activity of the volcano was above background levels: a lot of volcanic earthquakes and continuous volcanic tremor were registered at the volcano all week, but seismic activity of the volcano slightly decreased. According to visual data on December 25, gas-steam plume containing ash rose up to 5.5 km (18,000 ft) ASL. Lava effusion on the north-western flank of the volcano continues. Strombolian activity of the volcano was noted on December 25 and 27. Small ash fall at Kozyrevsk village was noted on December 27. According to satellite data, a large thermal anomaly was registered over the volcano all week. Ash plumes extended about 250 km (155 mi) to the north-east from the volcano on December 25-26.

We worry about Yellowstone not for what it is doing — a little seismicity and heat flux are trivial compared with the eruption of Kliuchevskoy — but for what it might do. However it would be well to remember that numerous eruptions are underway worldwide at any given time.

You’ll never hear this from Al Gore, but volcanoes pump about 20 times more CO2 into the atmosphere than human activity, on an annual basis. Of course humankind’s CO2 output is growing, but volcanoes have also been comparatively quiet for a century or so.

Some readers have commented that today’s quiet seismic traces must mean the quake swarm is all over and we can forget about Yellowstone again. Not so fast! This swarm is part of a long-term change in the caldera. Uplift began years ago, and the greatest uplift has been observed on the north shore of the lake, totaling eight inches. Last year there was also an observed increase in water temperature near the lake bottom when measurements were taken in the locality of current quakes. Now rare reader Mark W has found a very intriguing link that suggests more substantial changes.

When heated, water expands. Heating and additional deformation of the lakebed must explain this unseasonal deviation. An extensive area of lake bottom has warmed and lifted enough to force water out through the gauge at a season when freezup normally lowers the rate of discharge and keeps it dropping until spring thaw. Winter has come early and hard in this region, causing a quicker than usual drop in flow by early December. The reversal is all the sharper for that, and it is another indicator of potential for future volcanic activity. I expect to be blogging about events in Yellowstone for months to come.

Addendum: Welcome to readers of Instapundit and Townhall. Thanks for stopping by. I hope you’ll take a few minutes to look around the site. It’s not all earthquakes and volcanoes. I originally intended it to be my sea-log when I was a boat owner (hence the flippant title), but much has changed since those days. I can’t sail any more, but I can still blog. Enjoy your cruise through these pages.

Though he keeps a strong demeanor in public, President George W. Bush must feel a bit like King David as his term of office closes.

Psalm 22

1 My God, my God, why hast thou forsaken me? Why art thou so far from helping me, and from the words of my roaring?

2 O my God, I cry in the daytime, but thou hearest not; and in the night season, and am not silent.

3 But thou art holy, O thou that inhabitest the praises of Israel.

4 Our fathers trusted in thee: they trusted, and thou didst deliver them.

5 They cried unto thee, and were delivered:they trusted in thee, and were not confounded.

6 But I am a worm, and no man; a reproach of men, and despised of the people.

7 All they that see me laugh me to scorn: they shoot out the lip, they shake the head, saying,

8 He trusted on the LORD that he would deliver him:let him deliver him, seeing he delighted in him.

9 But thou art he that took me out of the womb: thou didst make me hope when I was upon my mother’s breasts.

10 I was cast upon thee from the womb: thou art my God from my mother’s belly.

11 Be not far from me; for trouble is near; for there is none to help.

12 Many bulls have compassed me:strong bulls of Bashan have beset me round.

13 They gaped upon me with their mouths, as a ravening and a roaring lion.

14 I am poured out like water, and all my bones are out of joint:
my heart is like wax; it is melted in the midst of my bowels.

15 My strength is dried up like a potsherd; and my tongue cleaveth to my jaws; and thou hast brought me into the dust of death.

16 For dogs have compassed me: the assembly of the wicked have inclosed me: they pierced my hands and my feet.

17 I may tell all my bones: they look and stare upon me.

18 They part my garments among them,and cast lots upon my vesture.

19 But be not thou far from me, O LORD: O my strength, haste thee to help me.

20 Deliver my soul from the sword; my darling from the power of the dog.

21 Save me from the lion’s mouth: for thou hast heard me from the horns of the unicorns.

22 I will declare thy name unto my brethren: in the midst of the congregation will I praise thee.

23 Ye that fear the LORD, praise him; all ye the seed of Jacob, glorify him; and fear him, all ye the seed of Israel.

24 For he hath not despised nor abhorred the affliction of the afflicted; neither hath he hid his face from him; but when he cried unto him, he heard.

25 My praise shall be of thee in the great congregation: I will pay my vows before them that fear him.

26 The meek shall eat and be satisfied: they shall praise the LORD that seek him: your heart shall live for ever.

27 All the ends of the world shall remember and turn unto the LORD:and all the kindreds of the nations shall worship before thee.

28 For the kingdom is the LORD’s: and he is the governor among the nations.

29 All they that be fat upon earth shall eat and worship:all they that go down to the dust shall bow before him: and none can keep alive his own soul.

30 A seed shall serve him; it shall be accounted to the Lord for a generation.

31 They shall come, and shall declare his righteousness unto a people that shall be born, that he hath done this.

I still think history will vindicate President Bush in his war, but I’m not so sure how his last year in office will look to the historians, if the world sinks into depression for the next decade. He may be reviled for all time, or seen as the unappreciated protector of his nation amid many perils. But I am sure he will never write of his reign as well as King David did.

Anthony Watts continues his public service of investigating and exposing the mismanagemt of climate data collection sites around the US. Many of these sites fail to meet standards for consistent data results. They have often been resituated in increasingly urban environments, without regard to nearby, heat-producing or retaining structures. The skewed readings have been further “adjusted” by James Hansen’s acolytes at NASA. often in ways that exaggerate past temperature gain and obscure recent fall. Satellite measures for our watery planet as a whole do not bear out the warming trend that is extrapolated from flawed land-station data. Thus there are disparate data sets — a faulty one providing basis for climate alarm, and a true one supporting skepticism. Congress must be educated about the facts before it passes idiotic legislation based on false premises about “tipping points” and climate emergency.

William McGurn sternly warns Barack Obama not to repeat the mistakes of New Jersey — once a thriving center of economic activity driven from New York City by excessive taxes there, now the most- business hostile state in the nation. The price of bad policy is becoming fully apparent, and New Jersey could soon join the supplicant states pleading for federal rescue. But who will rescue Uncle Sam? China? The Arab Emirates?

Let me begin with the caveat I have repeated in recent days: the probability of a catastrophic eruption at Yellowstone is exceedingly small, and it remains so, despite the swarm of small quakes, the recent uplift of the caldera floor, and the increased heat flux reported under Yellowstone Lake last year.

One of the YVO geologists recently characterized the content of the stagnant magma chamber as a partially crystallized slush. There is no reason to think the old magma would mobilize and blow out, unless there were a major new injection from the depths. If that were happening, we would be seeing deep quakes. The current activity is very shallow.

A semi-crystallized melt is still plenty hot. If the quake swarm opens cracks for lake water to penetrate more deeply, hydrothermal activity could become explosive. A plausible scenario would be a picturesque round of steam explosions, and a new island or two forming in Yellowstone Lake. Residents of Cody, Wyoming would get some ashfall, and life might be tough there for awhile. Everyone else could enjoy the show. TV reporters would camp along the upwind lakeshore, and bloggers would titillate the internet with prognostications of doom. We could all use some entertainment, while the slush of our financial meltdown cools and solidifies.

Now we begin to see the shape of the impending crisis in China. There will be strife between the disgraced statists, who have followed the authoritarian Deng model of development, and the true reformers, who see their moment to move China toward more political liberty. Meanwhile the troubles of the time propel the US in the opposite ideological direction, through disgrace of the ostensibly capitalist party here. Ah, the ironies.

Though it is less dramatic than its quaky predecessors, this seismic trace from the Lake station could be the most significant development yet in the ongoing disturbance under Yellowstone Lake. See the wavy passages? This is harmonic tremor — the surest sign that magma is moving in a conduit.

Update: In the comments on this post, a reader has raised a point that I need to check out. It is possible that the apparent tremor signal is actually an echo of the major quake in Indonesia today, superimposed on the signals from local activity.

Correction: A lesson in caution: the wavy signal looks like harmonic tremor, but it must have been a seismic echo from Indonesia. All stations in the network recorded it at similar strength, indicating it was not a local event. I should have looked at them before jumping on the “harmonic tremor” notion. This was a false alarm — and the Yellowstone swarm has been alarming enough as it is.

Yellowstone Volcanic Observatory has published another press release. Here is the most significant passage:

The University of Utah Seismograph Stations reports that as of 1800 MST on 2 January 2009, seismicity of the ongoing Yellowstone earthquake swarm continues. Over 500 earthquakes, as large as M 3.9, have been recorded by an automated earthquake system since the inception of this unusual earthquake sequence that began Dec. 27, 2008. More than 300 of these events have been reviewed and evaluated by seismic analysts. Depths of the earthquakes range from ~ 1km to around 10 km. We note that the earthquakes extend northward from central Yellowstone Lake for ~10 km toward the Fishing Bridge area, with a migration of recent earthquakes toward the north. Some of the dozen M3+ earthquakes were felt in the Lake, Grant Village and Old Faithful areas. Personnel of the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory continue to evaluate this earthquake sequence and will provide information to the NPS, USGS and the public as it evolves.

This earthquake sequence is the most intense in this area for some years. No damage has been reported within Yellowstone National Park, nor would any be expected from earthquakes of this size. The swarm is in a region of historical earthquake activity and is close to areas of Yellowstone famous hydrothermal activity. Similar earthquake swarms have occurred in the past in Yellowstone without triggering steam explosions or volcanic activity. Nevertheless, there is some potential for hydrothermal explosions and earthquakes may continue or increase in magnitude. There is a much lower potential for related volcanic activity.

No mention of tremor, which has been conspicuous on seismic traces from stations closest to the action, though it ended yesterday afternoon. The presence of tremor suggests the potential for “related volcanic activity” is higher than YVO wishes to acknowledge.

US politics have taken another surprising turn. It looks like the new Congress will start amid a controversy over seating two Democrats in the Senate — Burris of Illinois, appointed by a disgraced governor — and Franken of Minnesota who has “won” a disputed recount, after much finagling. Republican John Cornyn promises a filibuster against Franken’s seating, and the Republicans might just hold the line on this issue. Since Franken’s “victory” may be disputed for many months, Minnesota may have to survive with one Senator for while. I’m sure the resourceful northerners will manage, somehow.

The stakes are high in Gaza, but competence is absent in Jerusalem. With troops deployed, Olmert is dithering, which is terrible for military morale.

Mark Steyn writes about the debasement of “the Palestinian people,” wholly given over to Jew-hate.

Last week the Jew-haters were loose in Fort Lauderdale. Who knew?

At Reason Magazine, Jeff Taylor explains why 2009 will be worse than 2008.

After five years, two Mars rovers are still creeping about the Red Planet. BBC reports on the ongoing mission.

After my leukemia diagnosis in 2005, Tim told me that several of his Catholic friends were including me in their daily prayers for the sick. I was discomfited by that thought. To pray for the health of someone with a mortal diagnosis seemed too much like asking for a miracle, and I was not a believer in miracles. I suggested that they wish me grace rather than health. That was what I would really need.

Curious, how things work out. I do not have health, but I am still alive, and where there is life, there are surprises. I have written in a post called Darwin’s Child how I sank into despair in early December. I had run out of goals and resources. I was sick and getting sicker. Wakeful at night, I rehearsed suicide — even powdering and mixing an oxycodone with rum, to learn how bad it would taste.

Then one night I pondered the grace I had not found. I thought of how Christ suffered, how John Paul II suffered. I thought of sin — an enormous weight on me and on everyone. I thought of the world and its confusion of faiths. I ran through what bits of prayer I knew. Raised in unbelief, I had never actually prayed in my life. Finally my mind settled on the formula, Thy will, not mine. And the next morning, when I was least expecting it, an answer came. You are not alone.

The other day I reminded Tim of my 2005 reaction to the prayers of his friends, and he chuckled. “Grace is a much bigger miracle than health.”

The seismic traces at Yellowstone show that tremor has ceased, and there are only occasional micro-quakes. Does this mean the swarm is ending? Probably not. It has persisted for nine days, and yesterday’s flurry of quakes was likely not the last.

While looking around the YVO site, I noted the press release dated March 25, 2008, concerning a M 4.1 quake that shook much of the park. Its epicenter was beneath the lake, in the same area as the recent swarm. With increased heat flux and surface deformation (eight inches in three years) also centered here, it is reasonable to assume that an eruption could occur in coming years.

If the quakes continue and intensify, with episodes of tremor, we will have to assume that an eruption could come sooner, but I must repeat the caveat: no one knows how large such an eruption might be, and there is no reason to think the whole magma chamber would empty, merely because a pulse breaks surface.

Nano-diamonds, iridium traces, and other markers of impact have been studied in a sediment layer dating to 12,900 years BP. This was also when the Clovis people and various large mammals (”megafauna,” including mammoths) went extinct in North America. A thousand year mini-Ice Age commenced at the same time. Some scientists are tempted to connect these phenomena.

The causes of the woolly mammoth extinction, the collapse of Clovis culture and the onset of the cold snap have long been debated. But only the impact theory accounts for the simultaneous occurrence of all three, said Doug Kennett.

Others are wary of the link. Jeff Severinghaus, a geochemist who studies ice cores at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, is sceptical that an impact could have led to the temperature plunge.

He said records from Greenland suggested the cooling began earlier than 12,900 years ago. However, he is keeping an open mind.

I don’t buy the impact theory. Any impact big enough to change world climate, such a short time ago, would surely have left more of a mark. In their eagerness to connect events, scientists like Doug Kennett have forgotten coincidence. A fairly minor impact, ten or a hundred times the size of the Tungiska event, might simply have coincided with the onset of a chill-down driven by other forces, like the other, much greater ice ages. Overhunting might have reduced megafauna populations past recovery in a time of dearth. Then the Clovis people would have perished for want of meat.

It ought to humble our “experts” in climate change that so little is known about such recent events. But humility is not James Hansen’s salient trait.

From Chicago columnist John Kass:

Obama could have forcefully and publicly demanded that Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan and fellow Illinois Democrats support legislation for a special election to fill his vacated Senate seat. Obama had a responsibility to the people of Illinois to do so. But he kept his mouth shut. As always, he avoided conflict with machine political bosses, a consistent character trait stubbornly ignored by his media cheerleaders.

His top White House strategist and his chief of staff are creatures of the Daley machine, and Democrats didn’t want to risk the Senate seat. What happened to the promise of transcending the old politics?

So when the freak show comes to Washington next week and political hack Roland “I’m a tool of the people” Burris is denied entry to the Senate, and the national political class shrieks in fake outrage and Blagojevich surrounds himself with African-American ministers and he sings “Let my people go!” remember who could have stopped all this: Obama, Madigan, Daley and the Illinois Democrats.

The next four years may be more entertaining than Clinton’s eight.

“This time the political coloration is less clear,” says the International Herald Tribune. Really?

If Yellowstone volcano produced a major eruption plume — a very remote possibility, but one worth considering at the moment — where would it go? A really big eruption could drop ash thousands of miles from the source, but upper winds at the time of the eruption would determine which way the plume might track. Here is the GFS 16-day time-lapse model of winds at the 250 mb level — roughly the boundary between troposphere and stratosphere. It might prove useful. Even Florida will be downwind of Yellowstone at times during the next two weeks, as the jet stream flexes and pulses. Ash-fall quantities would depend on the volume of material ejected and speed of the upper flow bearing the plume. A slower flow would allow more ash to fall closer to the source; a very strong jet would elongate the zone of deposition.

This is the latest trace at Old Faithful, some twenty five miles from the swarm zone under Yellowstone Lake. I have chosen it to illustrate the change in seismicity during the last few hours. This site is too far away to register the tremor evident in the traces on Lake or St. Mary’s seismometers. It shows a nearly flat line with a few tiny quakes prior to the large event around 11:40 AM MT. But since then there have been a number of other quakes larger than M 3, and the tremor has become much more apparent, even at this distance. In short, the seismic activity ramped up and remains elevated. Why? I think the first quake may have triggered a change in the process. Perhaps water is now finding its way into proximity with magma. If so, we can expect more erratic seismicity as pressure builds in the system. The odds of an eruption look higher. But I must stress, an eruption does not mean a calamity. A small eruption is far more likely than a big one.

Update: 4:40 MT: The latest seismic spasm has passed, and activity has returned to its level of early morning.

Here is the latest seismic trace from Mary Lake. You can access this and other seismic stations around the Yellowstone area from the new “featured” link on the FB sidebar at upper right. Small quakes continue, but they are virtually invisible on this trace, overwhelmed by tremor. I am reminded of the last episode of dome-building at Mount Saint Helens. Before the eruption began, numerous small quakes signaled “rock-breaking.” Then the tremor started. Soon after tremor signal completely covered the white in seismic traces from the nearest instruments, lava extrusion commenced.

I doubt YVO geologists will be saying this today, but I would not be surprised to see some sort of eruptive activity in Yellowstone Lake during the coming days or weeks. It might take the form of underwater explosions, which would readily break surface, since the lake is quite shallow in the quake area. Or lava might emerge on the lake-bed, in which case a new island would soon be seen. We will try not to think about the more drastic manifestations that are conceivable in such a place.

An awesome late Cretaceous bone-bed has been found in China.

After the last La Nina, the tropical Pacific lapsed for half a year into a state known as “ENSO neutral,” meaning that equatorial water temperatures, for the ocean as a whole, averaged near normal, though there was a ribbon of warmth near South America — like a stutter-start for El Nino — and a more extensive area of modest coolness in the central and western Pacific.

Now, however, the anomaly pattern exhibits the distinctive scalloping of a phase shift. A new La Nina is coming on, fast and strong. This will affect global weather patterns in the late winter — especially systems over North America. It could bring late season snows, intense storms in the plains, and a high tornado count as spring sets in.

People have been conditioned to believe the opposite, but a cooling world is a stormy world, as temperature contrasts increase. A warming world is benign, as long as it doesn’t warm too fast, as in the Biblical flood, which is probably a folk memory of the last ice age closing, 12,000 years ago.

Economist Nouriel Roubini explains why he thinks the recession will be deeper and longer than conventional wisdom expects. I am sorry to agree with him. I would also add that the strains of such a recession within and between nations poses a very large risk of more and larger wars in the world, a topic Roubini never mentions.

There are three new “featured” links at the top of the righthand sidebar. The old, market-related links will be reposted tomorrow under “news” in the “external links” page, which is available via FB’s lower navigation bar. Our market crisis has calmed down, and those links had been up since September. I am now fairly confident that the quake swarm at Yellowstone represents the onset of sustained activity which will justify this switch of “featured” links.

Yellowstone Volcano Observatory has issued a new statement on the quake swarm. It is very circumspect, as one would expect. Here is the key passage:

The swarm is in a region of historical earthquake activity and is close to areas of Yellowstone famous hydrothermal activity. Similar earthquake swarms have occurred in the past in Yellowstone without triggering steam explosions or volcanic activity. Nevertheless, there is some potential for hydrothermal explosions and earthquakes may continue or increase in magnitude. There is a much lower potential for related volcanic activity.

Frequent small quakes and apparent tremor (possibly contaminated by wind impact on seismic instruments) continue at this time. YVO does not mention the apparent tremor in seismic traces; instead it has some evasive language about incomplete analysis of the seismic data. At least it is safe to say that the longer the swarm continues, the further it will surpass the parameters of ordinary activity.

Made with lamb or beef, saag is a dish with distinctive green sauce. The coloring comes from spinach, finely chopped or pureed, and it is so intense that a quantity of yoghurt scarcely lightens it. The layers of flavor begin with sauteed onion, ginger, garlic, and a dried red pepper. Then one adds a paste of curry powder and cayenne for a nice stir. Next comes the meat, to be quickly sealed, and stir-fried with the spices until cooked. Next the puree and yoghurt join the mix. When the new ingredients are stirred and simmering, a quantity of finely chopped coriander adds a final layer of flavor. Served with rice, saag needs no other accompaniment, though some sliced tomato might go well.

Between cooking, eating, and reading the dialogue of Umberto Eco with Cardinal Martini. I have failed to write the New Year’s post I promised. Patience, please. I recall reading reviews and essays on Belief or Non Belief? when it appeared. Originally provoked by the editors of a major Italian newspaper, the book is a rare encounter between between intelligent men who disagree with open minds. I shall undoubtedly have more to say about it later. Meanwhile, I bid you adieu for the moment.

The Yellowstone seismic feed has failed. It looks like a technical problem with some server that collects data from the various seismographs. Of course it’s a holiday, and no tech is available. Let’s hope this gets fixed promptly. That swarm of quakes needs watching.

Update: The feed is back. Quakes are small and brief now, but tremor has resumed. We don’t like tremor.

I found a web-page with a frequently updated list of earthquakes in the Intermountain West. Of course the list is completely dominated by the ongoing Yellowstone swarm. It does not include every jiggle one sees on the seismic traces, only the larger, longer shakes, which can be precisely located. Take a look at the quake depths of the Yellowstone swarm. Nearly all range from around 6 km to as little as 0.1 km — virtually at the surface. This is a disturbing detail I had not considered before. It implies that the whole rock column from the magma chamber to the lake bed is involved with the cracking process. I think you can guess what inference I draw from this pattern.

As it has done with Tibetan Buddhism, China has co-oped Catholic bishops to form a government-controlled hierarchy, and keep any potential malcontents in line. But China is also a complex place, and Catholicism there has taken a variety of guises. They are described in a fascinating essay by Dr. Anthony Clark. Links to some other Clark writings on this topic can be found here.

Here’s another hangover from 2008: an aggressive and nearly bankrupt Russia. Yesterday I read two disquieting stories. The first was sent me by a rare reader. It’s a Financial Times discussion of what may be an emerging rivalry between Russia’s puppet president and its arrogant prime minister. The puppet is getting restive. This was bound to happen in the long run, but the pace has quickened because of economic stress. Putin is frantically blaming foreigners, especially the US. Medvedev may be tempted to counter by blaming Putin’s mismangement of the good times for the hardships of the present.

The other article concerns Putin’s latest bid to foment a crisis and expand Russian influence in a neighboring state: Ukraine. This is dangerous business. Europe is being held hostage to Russian energy supply, but Russia is going broke and cannot afford interruption in its shrunken revenue. It’s time for some bluff calling. Has Europe got the guts? Nah.

Update: Opinion Journal also has an article on Russia’s troubles.

Welcome to 2009! The Yellowstone seismic traces this morning show reduced tremor, but increased frequency of small, sharp quakes, mostly M 2-3. I have seen such signatures characterized as “rock breaking.” This happens when moving magma presses against adjoining hot (but solid) rock and causes it to crack.

That said, there is no reason to think at this time that any eruption is imminent. This could be no more than a grumble of the volcano’s innards. It is also well to remember that Yellowstone erupts in many different ways. The heat and magma source is believed to be a plume rising from deep in the mantle. Like a blowtorch, it melts through the thick continental rock, which has a very different chemistry from the source magma.

There is no way to know the composition of a particular magma body until it reaches the surface. If magma is more basaltic, consisting chiefly of material derived directly from the mantle plume, then comparatively fluid lava will pour from fissures. Such eruptions are not especially dangerous, unless a very large volume emerges very quickly, as happened at Iceland in the 1700’s.

However most Yellowstone melts contain small or larger fractions of incorporated continental crust. This chemistry makes for more explosive eruptions. The presence of the caldera lake could also enhance explosivity. The water is not very deep at the location of the quakes, and an eruption would break surface easily.

Most Yellowstone eruptions are small to moderate in size. The really big ones are exceedingly rare. If there is an eruption, it does not follow automatically that there will be a catastrophe. Quite the reverse. A small eruption — say a few moderate explosions followed by a period of dome building — would be a fascinating event for geologists and park visitors for years to come. So let’s not talk Armageddon just yet.

BTW, one Denver reader wondered what might happen there in the event of The Big One. That area might or might not be downwind of the plume at the time of a big blowout. Lightly populated areas across the northern plains could have higher risk, as prevailing upper winds would be most likely to carry Yellowstone fallout in that direction.

As for national preparation, coping with a big blowout at Yellowstone is similar to coping with the aftermath of an EMP or other WMD attack. It falls within the scope of plans already formulated.

This is the latest seismic trace from the Lake station in Yellowstone Park. I’m not a geologist, but I have studied seismic patterns in the onset of volcanic eruptions, and this is what they looked like. The trouble is this is not a normal volcano. It is Yellowstone Caldera. And this seismic crisis is occurring where the magma chamber is closest to surface. The lake bed has been bulging upward rapidly in this area for months, and I also recall a report of rising water temperature near the bottom, implying thermal flux.

Just remember, it started in 2008. Yesterday I wondered what additional weirdness 2008 could throw at us. Now we know.

This is a recent seismograph trace from West Thumb at Yellowstone Lake, the closest station to the earthquake swarm under way a few milies beneath the frozen highland. Notice how this morning’s quakes, at the top, break a nearly flat trace line. And notice how the line ceases to be flat, acquires a constant slight wiggle as one follows it down and forward in time. That, rare readers, is tremor, and it means this is no longer an ordinary quake swarm. Magma may be moving. This bears watching. It’s nice to start the new year with a bang, but not that kind of bang.

Thanks to rare reader Brian for alerting me to the source for real-time Yellowstone seismic traces. I shall be returning often until this spasm passes.

Drudge has linked the USGS display of ongoing small earthquakes at Yellowstone Park. There have been swarms in the great caldera many times before, but this one is occurring directly atop the magma chamber at the point where it is closest to the surface, under Yellowstone Lake. The swarm has also continued longer now than is usual for such events. This begins to be a little disturbing, though no update has yet appeared today on the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory site. Keep an eye out. The geologists will have to formulate another statement soon, if this activity continues. They will want to avoid alarming the public, so it may take a bit of reading between the lines to discern their true opinion.

This morning I have two appointments. The first will take place at Church of the Little Flower. I will have more to say about it later. Let us call it an exploratory discussion with Father Pat. I have met the jovial, erudite, septuagenarian Irishman several times in the past; indeed he visited Fugle twice when Tim and I were spending time at Hollywood Marina. Tim has become a bit of a celebrity among the parishioners. He serves as lector and twines in some poetry every time he visits.

Last night at Sage, Tim was greeted by one of the other lectors who chanced into the place while were were eating our crepes. She is a serious fan of Tim’s poetry. She has no notion of mine, which is known only to rare readers, since I am not a self-promoter in Tim’s league. Indeed I would never call myself a “poet.” The images invoked have nothing to do with my life. And no one knows what I mean if I say I’m a “blogger.” I refer to myself as retired, and if quizzed further, mutter vague things about property management and investments.

The second appointment is less pleasant: the lab at Quest diagnostics, for the blood cultures ordered needlessly by Doctor D. That means a lengthy stay and particularly painful punctures. I will not be back at Ocean Club until early afternoon. The laptop will not be traveling with me, so blogging must wait.

David Solway lays the ugly truth on the line. I have nothing to add but this: a great historical drama is nearing its climax, and Israel has little time left to secure its survival. In view of the increasing passivity and division in the Israeli polity, I am not optimistic.